China electric bicycle industry has gone through several important development phases: the stage before 2002 was the initial development period of the industry; the annual output was less than 2 million units; the industry was in a spontaneous growth stage, showing a small production and marketing scale, small number of industry employees and brand enterprises.
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The period of 2002-2007 was rapid development stage of the industry. Due to the low barriers to entry and the large market demand, a number of manufacturers appeared in the industry; the annual growth rate was 80%-100%. By the year of 2007, the industry scale reached to the peak—annual output of 21 million units; the electric bicycle volume in service was 80 million.
From 2008-2011, the industry started to enter the stable growth stage. The scale of production and sales was about 20 million units annually. Drastic change took place in the industry during the period; the inside and outside environment was complex and changeable; industry entrance threshold was higher. Industrial transformation and upgrading became the most critical characteristics.
China electric bicycle industry is currently in a stable growth period. There is still room for growth in the future, but the total output will have no substantial growth like previous years; it will be kept at 20-30 million units annually.
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It is expected that the industry will gradually enter the mature stage after 2015. By then, the industry entrance threshold will move up further; brand concentration ratio will be improved further. As the market environment changes, the total output may have significant improvement, the annual production and sales scales will exceed 30 million units; the electric bicycle volume in service will surpass 200 million units.