Friday, April 19, 2013

China Cattle Farming & Dairy Industry Analysis and Forecast Report 2012 - 2013 -

In 2012, China's dairy cattle farming and dairy industry mainly showed the following characteristics and changes:
  1. The raw milk supply was still in shortage in 2012, and milk price stayed on high level. However, to compare with 2011, profits in dairy cattle farming declined significantly and even presented deficit because of big feed cost increase.
  2. Poor margin have forced many small farmers to give up dairy cattle farming in 2012. Community farming is expected to transform into professional farming modes like large-scale farm or dairy cooperative; and the proportion of large-scale dairy cattle farming in China will further expand.
  3. Large-scale dairy cattle farming have been developing rapidly in China. In 2012, the number of dairy farms with inventory of over 1,000 heads has exceeded 1,200, among which about 50 large dairy farms (including farms in plan, under construction and in operation) individually have inventory of over 3,000 heads, and over 10 super large dairy farms respectively own inventory of 10,000 heads.
  4. Dairy cattle farming will expand demand for automatic equipments like in feeding and milking. Meanwhile, manure pollution will become the major factor to restrict development of the industry.
  5. In 2012, alfalfa hay consumption showed growth and the import volume reached 0.45 million MT, accounting for over 60% of national consumption.
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Meanwhile, there are some new changes in dairy industry:
  1. In 2012, dairy products output and imports both increased greatly and respectively reached 25.45 million MT and 1.15 million MT; the output of liquid milk and solid dairy products kept increasing and respectively reached 22.4 million MT and 1.57 million MT; the supply and demand was generally balanced.
  2. In 2012, China's UHT milk imports sharply increased - doubled 2011 and reached nearly 94,000 MT; The number of imported UHT milk brands exceeded 30.
  3. In the Chinese infant formula market, foreign brands covers 60-70% market share; the number of foreign brands has even exceeded 100. Meanwhile, overseas purchasing service for infant formula has been developing drastically and contributes about 10% of the national consumption.
  4. Many international dairy giants like Fonterra, Danone, Nestle and Arla Foods have been expanding investment and development in China.
We predict the dairy industry development in 2013 to go along the following trends: more small farmers quitting the industry; the proportion of large-scale dairy farming in dairy farming industry to further increase; the domestic raw milk supply to keep ascending; total dairy imports to increase slightly; the dairy production capacity to continue to expand. Generally speaking, domestic raw milk shortage will not be well eased, and dairy supply and demand will be balance in 2013.

This annual report will comprehensively and systematically analyze the trends and changes in the Chinese dairy market in 2012 with detailed and accurate data and will also forecast the development in 2013.
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